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Cesena vs Frosinone — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Frosinone
Frosinone
K. Laribi 53' (pen)
4/28/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 38Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cesena46%
×Draw23%
Frosinone32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.85
Frosinone
1.52

Cesena creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.75
Frosinone
1.83

allows per match

Cesena
1.22
Frosinone
1.95

finishing

Cesena-0.42scores less
Frosinone+0.34scores more

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Frosinone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
68%
Cesena or Frosinone
77%
Draw or Frosinone
54%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
25%
Frosinone wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
84%
Cesena 2+ goals
55%
Cesena 3+ goals
28%
Frosinone 1+ goals
78%
Frosinone 2+ goals
45%
Frosinone 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
59%
Frosinone (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.75 + Frosinone defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85

Frosinone attack 1.83 + Cesena defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cesena scores more
46%
level
23%
Frosinone scores more
32%

Cesena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
Raffaele Maiello
45'
Romano Perticone
53'
D. Soddimo← R. Maiello
53'
K. LaribiPenalty
54'
N. Citro← E. Terranova
65'
S. Emmanuello← G. Di Noia
79'
I. Donkor← E. Suagher
83'
L. Paganini← A. Beghetto
84'
G. Moncini← L. Jallow
90'
Gabriele Moncini

Possession

48%Cesena

Shots

10Cesena

Statistics

CesenaFrosinone
Overview
48%Possession52%
10Total Shots4
3Corners5
15Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots4
4On Target1
6Off Target3
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls14
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides6

Serie B: Cesena 1–0 Frosinone

Cesena beat Frosinone 1-0 in Serie B on April 28, 2018.

Goals: K. Laribi (53' pen).

Frosinone controlled possession (52%) and registered 4 shots to 10.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.