Frosinone 2–1 Bari: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bari

N. Corrado 53'

S. Fini 8'

E. Rao 2'

3/18/2026

Serie B · Round 31Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Frosinone57%

×Draw23%

Bari20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchBari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.99

Frosinone

1.81

Bari

0.99

Frosinone creates 83% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.76

creates per match

0.72

1.27

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Frosinone

1.76

Bari

0.72

allows per match

Frosinone

1.27

Bari

1.86

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.24scores more

Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Bari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

80%

Frosinone or Bari

77%

Draw or Bari

43%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

32%

Bari wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

84%

Frosinone 2+ goals

54%

Frosinone 3+ goals

27%

Bari 1+ goals

63%

Bari 2+ goals

26%

Bari 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

73%

Bari (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 9 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.76 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Bari attack 0.72 + Frosinone defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Frosinone scores more

57%

level

23%

Bari scores more

20%

Frosinone at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

S. Fini

Frosinone · F

9.2

Match Events

2'

E. Rao↳ G. Moncini

8'

S. Fini↳ A. Oyono

29'

33'

51'

53'

57'

64'

I. Monterisi← J. Gelli

64'

G. Kvernadze← A. Fiori

72'

N. Bellomo← G. Maggiore

72'

D. Traore← M. Dorval

76'

I. Koutsoupias← F. Gelli

81'

Gabriele Calvani

83'

C. Gytkjaer← T. Esteves

83'

G. Stabile← M. Mane

84'

E. Vergani← A. Raimondo

84'

G. Bracaglia← N. Corrado

90+5'

Giacomo De Pieri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneBari

Overview

61%Possession39%

27Total Shots5

2.24Expected Goals (xG)0.62

11Corners1

15Fouls5

Shots

27Total Shots5

10On Target3

12Off Target2

5Blocked1

19Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

464Total Passes315

411Accurate Passes226

89%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

0.06Goals Prevented0.06

Discipline

15Fouls5

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0

Serie B: Frosinone 2–1 Bari

Frosinone beat Bari 2-1 in Serie B on March 18, 2026.

Goals: E. Rao (2'), S. Fini (8'), N. Corrado (53').

Frosinone controlled possession (61%) and registered 27 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Frosinone 2–1 Bari