Bari 2–3 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Bari

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 3

Frosinone

G. Castrovilli 45'

M. Verreth 21'

F. Ghedjemis 42'

G. Bracaglia 27'

A. Raimondo 12'

11/22/2025

Serie B · Round 13Stadio San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bari30%

×Draw23%

Frosinone47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BariExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.86

Bari

1.46

Frosinone

1.86

Frosinone creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

0.97

creates per match

1.83

1.90

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Bari

0.97

Frosinone

1.83

allows per match

Bari

1.90

Frosinone

1.95

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Bari-0.33scores less

Frosinone+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bari or draw

53%

Bari or Frosinone

77%

Draw or Frosinone

70%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+

14%

Frosinone wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals

77%

Bari 2+ goals

43%

Bari 3+ goals

18%

Frosinone 1+ goals

84%

Frosinone 2+ goals

55%

Frosinone 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)

39%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.90 · 11 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 0.97 + Frosinone defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.46

Frosinone attack 1.83 + Bari defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bari scores more

30%

level

23%

Frosinone scores more

47%

Frosinone at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

G. Castrovilli

Bari · M

8.6

Match Events

11'

Riccardo PaganoGoal cancelled

12'

A. Raimondo↳ I. Monterisi

21'

M. Verreth

27'

G. Bracaglia↳ G. Calo

34'

Francesco Vicari

42'

Lorenzo Dickmann

42'

F. Ghedjemis

45'

G. Castrovilli↳ M. Antonucci

46'

A. Partipilo← C. Gytkjaer

47'

Anthony Oyono

62'

G. Maggiore← R. Pagano

63'

E. Rao← M. Antonucci

66'

N. Corrado← G. Kvernadze

69'

Gabriele Bracaglia

75'

G. Cittadini← G. Bracaglia

75'

M. Cichella← B. L. Kone

80'

M. Braunoder← G. Castrovilli

80'

L. Cerri← F. Vicari

86'

F. Gelli← G. Calo

86'

M. Zilli← A. Raimondo

87'

Ilario Monterisi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BariFrosinone

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots28

0.98Expected Goals (xG)3.80

4Corners9

13Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots28

4On Target8

4Off Target14

2Blocked6

6Inside Box23

4Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

394Total Passes372

315Accurate Passes296

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0