Bari 2–1 Frosinone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Bari

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Frosinone

N. Bonfanti 73'

A. Favilli 45+4' (pen)

G. Kvernadze 90+5'

2/2/2025

Serie B · Round 24Stadio Comunale San Nicola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Bari30%

×Draw23%

Frosinone47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BariExpected goals in this matchFrosinone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.86

Bari

1.46

Frosinone

1.86

Frosinone creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

0.97

creates per match

1.83

1.90

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Bari

0.97

Frosinone

1.83

allows per match

Bari

1.90

Frosinone

1.95

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Bari-0.33scores less

Frosinone+0.34scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bari ↓

Frosinone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bari or draw

53%

Bari or Frosinone

77%

Draw or Frosinone

70%

Winning margin

Bari wins by 2+

14%

Frosinone wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Bari 1+ goals

77%

Bari 2+ goals

43%

Bari 3+ goals

18%

Frosinone 1+ goals

84%

Frosinone 2+ goals

55%

Frosinone 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Bari (draw refunded)

39%

Frosinone (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bari at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.90 · 11 matches

Frosinone away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bari attack 0.97 + Frosinone defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.46

Frosinone attack 1.83 + Bari defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bari scores more

30%

level

23%

Frosinone scores more

47%

Frosinone at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

A. Favilli

Bari · F

8.3

Match Events

9'

12'

16'

17'

24'

45+3'

Mehdi DorvalPenalty confirmed

45+4'

A. FavilliPenalty

46'

M. Cichella← T. Begić

46'

G. Kvernadze← D. Bettella

59'

C. Saco← N. Bellomo

59'

N. Bonfanti← C. Falletti

62'

F. Tsadjout← I. Koutsoupias

66'

Jérémy Oyono

66'

Jérémy OyonoRed card cancelled

73'

N. Bonfanti↳ A. Favilli

75'

R. Maiello← Ahmad Benali

75'

G. Pereiro← A. Favilli

75'

K. Barcella← G. Ambrosino

85'

E. Pecorino← E. Darboe

86'

Mattia Maita

90+5'

G. Kvernadze↳ F. Tsadjout

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BariFrosinone

Overview

49%Possession51%

9Total Shots20

3Corners6

14Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots20

3On Target7

4Off Target5

2Blocked8

4Inside Box13

5Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

344Total Passes353

273Accurate Passes297

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls18

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1