Frosinone 1–0 Bari: Result & Stats | Serie B

Frosinone

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bari

G. Borrelli 90+2'

10/22/2022

Serie B · Round 10Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Frosinone59%

×Draw22%

Bari19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchBari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.95

Frosinone

1.89

Bari

0.95

Frosinone creates 99% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

1.92

creates per match

0.72

1.19

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Frosinone

1.92

Bari

0.72

allows per match

Frosinone

1.19

Bari

1.86

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.41scores more

Bari+0.07on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Bari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

81%

Frosinone or Bari

78%

Draw or Bari

41%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

35%

Bari wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

85%

Frosinone 2+ goals

56%

Frosinone 3+ goals

29%

Bari 1+ goals

61%

Bari 2+ goals

25%

Bari 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

76%

Bari (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.19 · 15 matches

Bari away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 1.92 + Bari defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.89

Bari attack 0.72 + Frosinone defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Frosinone scores more

59%

level

22%

Bari scores more

19%

Frosinone at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Frosinone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Lucioni

Frosinone · D

7.5

Match Events

20'

Nicola BellomoCard upgrade

21'

Nicola Bellomo

25'

Michael Folorunsho

32'

Luca Mazzitelli

32'

A. Mallamo← M. Antenucci

39'

Alessandro Mallamo

44'

Giacomo Ricci

46'

R. Insigne← G. Caso

46'

D. Boloca← L. Mazzitelli

46'

G. Frabotta← M. Cotali

61'

Luca Moro

64'

S. Mulattieri← L. Moro

70'

A. Mazzotta← G. Ricci

70'

A. Scheidler← W. Cheddira

70'

G. Cangiano← L. Benedetti

71'

Gianluca Frabotta

77'

G. Borrelli← L. Garritano

80'

Marcus Rohdén

85'

Ilario Monterisi

89'

A. D'Errico← A. Mallamo

90+4'

Gennaro Borrelli

90+2'

G. Borrelli↳ G. Frabotta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneBari

Overview

67%Possession33%

20Total Shots4

9Corners0

15Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots4

3On Target1

9Off Target3

8Blocked0

9Inside Box2

11Outside Box2

Passing

67%Possession33%

514Total Passes261

437Accurate Passes170

85%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls9

6Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

Serie B: Frosinone 1–0 Bari

Frosinone beat Bari 1-0 in Serie B on October 22, 2022.

Goals: G. Borrelli (90+2').

Frosinone controlled possession (67%) and registered 20 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Frosinone.

Frosinone vs Bari — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Frosinone 1–0 Bari