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Frome Town vs Exmouth — League #56 2026

Frome Town
Frome Town
FT
2 – 1
Exmouth
Exmouth
12/2/2023League #56League #56 · Southern South - 16AlderSmith Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Frome Town76%
×Draw15%
Exmouth9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frome Town
2.66
Exmouth
0.81

Frome Town creates 228% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

Frome Town
2.31
Exmouth
1.00

allows per match

Frome Town
0.63
Exmouth
3.00

finishing

Frome Town+0.00on par
Exmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frome Town ↓

Exmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Frome Town or draw
91%
Frome Town or Exmouth
85%
Draw or Exmouth
24%

Winning margin

Frome Town wins by 2+
55%
Exmouth wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Frome Town 1+ goals
93%
Frome Town 2+ goals
74%
Frome Town 3+ goals
49%
Exmouth 1+ goals
56%
Exmouth 2+ goals
19%
Exmouth 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Frome Town (draw refunded)
89%
Exmouth (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frome Town at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Exmouth away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frome Town attack 2.31 + Exmouth defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.66

Exmouth attack 1.00 + Frome Town defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Frome Town scores more
76%
level
15%
Exmouth scores more
9%

Frome Town at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Frome Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frome Town vs Exmouth

Frome Town beat Exmouth 2-1 in League #56 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at AlderSmith Stadium in Frome, Somerset.