Exmouth 1–1 Frome Town: Result & Stats | League #56

Exmouth

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Frome Town

4/11/2026

League #56 · Southern South - 40Complete Infrastructure Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Exmouth47%

×Draw24%

Frome Town30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExmouthExpected goals in this matchFrome Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.34

Exmouth

1.73

Frome Town

1.34

Exmouth creates 29% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

2.17

creates per match

2.35

0.33

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Exmouth

2.17

Frome Town

2.35

allows per match

Exmouth

0.33

Frome Town

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exmouth+0.00on par

Frome Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exmouth ↓

Frome Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Exmouth or draw

70%

Exmouth or Frome Town

76%

Draw or Frome Town

53%

Winning margin

Exmouth wins by 2+

25%

Frome Town wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Exmouth 1+ goals

82%

Exmouth 2+ goals

52%

Exmouth 3+ goals

25%

Frome Town 1+ goals

74%

Frome Town 2+ goals

39%

Frome Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Exmouth (draw refunded)

61%

Frome Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exmouth at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Frome Town away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exmouth attack 2.17 + Frome Town defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Frome Town attack 2.35 + Exmouth defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Exmouth scores more

47%

level

24%

Frome Town scores more

30%

Exmouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Exmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff