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Exmouth vs Frome Town — League #56 2026

Exmouth
Exmouth
FT
0 – 0
Frome Town
Frome Town
4/6/2024League #56League #56 · Southern South - 35King George V Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Exmouth45%
×Draw24%
Frome Town31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exmouth
1.66
Frome Town
1.32

Exmouth creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Exmouth
2.00
Frome Town
2.25

allows per match

Exmouth
0.40
Frome Town
1.31

finishing

Exmouth+0.00on par
Frome Town+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exmouth ↓

Frome Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Exmouth or draw
69%
Exmouth or Frome Town
76%
Draw or Frome Town
55%

Winning margin

Exmouth wins by 2+
24%
Frome Town wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Exmouth 1+ goals
81%
Exmouth 2+ goals
49%
Exmouth 3+ goals
23%
Frome Town 1+ goals
73%
Frome Town 2+ goals
38%
Frome Town 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Exmouth (draw refunded)
60%
Frome Town (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exmouth at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Frome Town away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.31 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exmouth attack 2.00 + Frome Town defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.66

Frome Town attack 2.25 + Exmouth defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Exmouth scores more
45%
level
24%
Frome Town scores more
31%

Exmouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Exmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #56: Exmouth 0–0 Frome Town

Exmouth and Frome Town drew 0-0 in League #56 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at King George V Ground in Exmouth, Devonshire.