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Fremad Amager vs AB Copenhagen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
2/20/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fremad Amager40%
×Draw27%
AB Copenhagen33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremad Amager
1.35
AB Copenhagen
1.20

Fremad Amager creates 13% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fremad Amager
1.45
AB Copenhagen
1.58

allows per match

Fremad Amager
0.82
AB Copenhagen
1.25

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par
AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

AB Copenhagen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw
67%
Fremad Amager or AB Copenhagen
73%
Draw or AB Copenhagen
60%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+
18%
AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals
74%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
39%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
15%
AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
70%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
34%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
55%
AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

AB Copenhagen away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.45 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.35

AB Copenhagen attack 1.58 + Fremad Amager defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fremad Amager scores more
40%
level
27%
AB Copenhagen scores more
33%

Fremad Amager at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Fremad
AB
C. Iversen
Manager: C. Iversen
Joey Gudjonsson
Manager: Joey Gudjonsson

Match Recap: Fremad Amager vs AB Copenhagen

Fremad Amager and AB Copenhagen drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 20, 2026.