Fremad Amager 1–1 AB Copenhagen: Result & Stats

Fremad Amager

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AB Copenhagen

D. Mortensen 64'

J. Brinch 20' (OG)

5/9/2025

2nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 4Sundby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fremad Amager39%

×Draw26%

AB Copenhagen35%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fremad AmagerExpected goals in this matchAB Copenhagen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.26

Fremad Amager

1.35

AB Copenhagen

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 74 away

1.31

creates per match

1.54

0.98

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Fremad Amager

1.31

AB Copenhagen

1.54

allows per match

Fremad Amager

0.98

AB Copenhagen

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

AB Copenhagen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw

65%

Fremad Amager or AB Copenhagen

74%

Draw or AB Copenhagen

61%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+

18%

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals

74%

Fremad Amager 2+ goals

39%

Fremad Amager 3+ goals

15%

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

72%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

36%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)

53%

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

AB Copenhagen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.31 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

AB Copenhagen attack 1.54 + Fremad Amager defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fremad Amager scores more

39%

level

26%

AB Copenhagen scores more

35%

Fremad Amager at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. BrinchOwn goal

50'

63'

64'

D. Mortensen

65'

76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff