AB Copenhagen 5–0 Fremad Amager: Result & Stats

AB Copenhagen

FT

5 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Fremad Amager

O. Mullings 58', 38'

S. Ilsoe 45'

M. Ramkilde 42'

J. Mathys 25'

9/26/2025

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 9Gladsaxe Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

AB Copenhagen50%

×Draw24%

Fremad Amager27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AB CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchFremad Amager

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.21

AB Copenhagen

1.74

Fremad Amager

1.21

AB Copenhagen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 48 away

2.01

creates per match

1.17

1.26

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

AB Copenhagen

2.01

Fremad Amager

1.17

allows per match

AB Copenhagen

1.26

Fremad Amager

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

Fremad Amager →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw

73%

AB Copenhagen or Fremad Amager

76%

Draw or Fremad Amager

50%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

27%

Fremad Amager wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

82%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

52%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

25%

Fremad Amager 1+ goals

70%

Fremad Amager 2+ goals

34%

Fremad Amager 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

65%

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.01 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more

50%

level

24%

Fremad Amager scores more

27%

AB Copenhagen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

38'

42'

45'

58'

AB

Fremad

Manager: Joey Gudjonsson

Manager: C. Iversen