Free State Stars vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Free State Stars33%
Kaizer Chiefs37%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 37 home / 124 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under67
- Over33
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Free State Stars ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Free State Stars at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 37 matches
Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Free State Stars attack 1.03 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98
Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Free State Stars defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Kaizer Chiefs at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Kaizer Chiefs substitutes
Orlando Pirates
Mamelodi SundownsKaizer Chiefs
Amazulu
Sekhukhune United
Golden Arrows
Polokwane City
Durban City
Stellenbosch
Siwelele
Richards Bay
TS Galaxy
Magesi
Chippa United
Marumo Gallants
Orbit College
Milford FC
Cape Town CityIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Free State Stars host Kaizer Chiefs on Wednesday, 4 April 2018 at 17:30. The match is part of the Premier Soccer League 2018/2019 season.
Free State Stars 0 – 1 Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs beat Free State Stars 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 4, 2018.
Goals: T. Hadebe (90+5').
The match was played at Goble Park Stadium (Bethlehem, FS).