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Kaizer Chiefs vs Free State Stars — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Free State Stars
Free State Stars
5/4/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 23Mbombela Stadium (Nelspruit)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs49%
×Draw27%
Free State Stars24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.44
Free State Stars
0.91

Kaizer Chiefs creates 58% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.16
Free State Stars
0.80

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.02
Free State Stars
1.73

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Free State Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Free State Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
76%
Kaizer Chiefs or Free State Stars
73%
Draw or Free State Stars
51%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
24%
Free State Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
76%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
42%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
18%
Free State Stars 1+ goals
60%
Free State Stars 2+ goals
23%
Free State Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
67%
Free State Stars (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Free State Stars away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Free State Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Free State Stars attack 0.80 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
49%
level
27%
Free State Stars scores more
24%

Kaizer Chiefs at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kaizer Chiefs 1 – 1 Free State Stars

Kaizer Chiefs and Free State Stars drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Mbombela Stadium (Nelspruit).