Free State Stars 0–2 Kaizer Chiefs: Result & Stats

Free State Stars

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Kaizer Chiefs

9/18/2018

Premier Soccer League · Round 5Goble Park Stadium (Bethlehem, FS)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Free State Stars33%

×Draw28%

Kaizer Chiefs39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Free State StarsExpected goals in this matchKaizer Chiefs

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.23

Free State Stars

1.11

Kaizer Chiefs

1.23

Kaizer Chiefs creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 119 away

1.27

creates per match

1.07

1.40

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Free State Stars

1.27

Kaizer Chiefs

1.07

allows per match

Free State Stars

1.40

Kaizer Chiefs

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Free State Stars+0.00on par

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Free State Stars ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Free State Stars or draw

61%

Free State Stars or Kaizer Chiefs

72%

Draw or Kaizer Chiefs

67%

Winning margin

Free State Stars wins by 2+

13%

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Free State Stars 1+ goals

67%

Free State Stars 2+ goals

30%

Free State Stars 3+ goals

10%

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals

71%

Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals

35%

Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Free State Stars (draw refunded)

46%

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Free State Stars at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Free State Stars attack 1.27 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.11

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Free State Stars defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Free State Stars scores more

33%

level

28%

Kaizer Chiefs scores more

39%

Kaizer Chiefs at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff