Fredrikstad vs Kristiansund BK

Fredrikstad

Preview

17:15

Kristiansund BK

8/16/2026

Eliteserien · Round 18Fredrikstad Stadion

Big match

52%

Fredrikstad

model favours

52%23%25%

Kristiansund BK score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Fredrikstad52%

×Draw23%

Kristiansund BK25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchKristiansund BK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.18

Fredrikstad

1.80

Kristiansund BK

1.18

Fredrikstad creates 53% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.60

creates per match

1.03

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Kristiansund BK

1.03

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Kristiansund BK

2.00

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Kristiansund BK-0.03on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Kristiansund BK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

75%

Fredrikstad or Kristiansund BK

77%

Draw or Kristiansund BK

48%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

29%

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

83%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

54%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

27%

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

69%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

33%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

67%

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Kristiansund BK away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Kristiansund BK attack 1.03 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

52%

level

23%

Kristiansund BK scores more

25%

Fredrikstad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Fredrikstad score first in only 24% of matches
71% of Fredrikstad’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Kristiansund BK win just 18% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Fredrikstad

Balanced

Kristiansund BK

Direct / counter-attacking

45%Possession42%

75%Pass accuracy78%

11.2Shots11.5

1.36xGBiggest gap1.16

FredrikstadKristiansund BK

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

4

Fredrikstad

1

Draws

2

Kristiansund BK

Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 57%

0–23–11–01–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Fredrikstad

LLLDD

BK

DLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff