Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Exeter City

8/25/2018

League Two · Round 5Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons44%

×Draw27%

Exeter City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.11

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

Exeter City

1.11

Milton Keynes Dons creates 26% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 90 away

1.61

creates per match

1.24

0.98

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.61

Exeter City

1.24

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.98

Exeter City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

70%

Milton Keynes Dons or Exeter City

73%

Draw or Exeter City

56%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

21%

Exeter City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

75%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

41%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

17%

Exeter City 1+ goals

67%

Exeter City 2+ goals

30%

Exeter City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

59%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.61 + Exeter City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.40

Exeter City attack 1.24 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

44%

level

27%

Exeter City scores more

30%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff