Exeter City 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

9/3/2022

League One · Round 7St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Exeter City38%

×Draw27%

Milton Keynes Dons35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.24

Exeter City

1.31

Milton Keynes Dons

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 95 away

1.23

creates per match

1.27

1.21

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Exeter City

1.23

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

allows per match

Exeter City

1.21

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

65%

Exeter City or Milton Keynes Dons

73%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

62%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

17%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

73%

Exeter City 2+ goals

38%

Exeter City 3+ goals

14%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

71%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

35%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

52%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Exeter City scores more

38%

level

27%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

35%

Exeter City at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff