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Exeter City vs Milton Keynes Dons — League Two 2018

Exeter City
Exeter City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
2/2/2019League TwoLeague Two · Round 31St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Exeter City45%
×Draw25%
Milton Keynes Dons31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Exeter City
1.57
Milton Keynes Dons
1.26

Exeter City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 93 away

creates per match

Exeter City
1.58
Milton Keynes Dons
1.54

allows per match

Exeter City
0.98
Milton Keynes Dons
1.56

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw
69%
Exeter City or Milton Keynes Dons
75%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
55%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+
22%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals
79%
Exeter City 2+ goals
46%
Exeter City 3+ goals
21%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
72%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
36%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)
59%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.98 · 90 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.58 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.57

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.54 + Exeter City defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Exeter City scores more
45%
level
25%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
31%

Exeter City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Exeter City vs Milton Keynes Dons

Exeter City beat Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 in League Two on February 2, 2019.

The match was played at St James Park in Exeter.