Foz Do Iguacu 2–1 AA Iguaçu: Result & Stats

Foz Do Iguacu

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AA Iguaçu

6/7/2025

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio do ABC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Foz Do Iguacu60%

×Draw21%

AA Iguaçu19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foz Do IguacuExpected goals in this matchAA Iguaçu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.09

Foz Do Iguacu

2.10

AA Iguaçu

1.09

Foz Do Iguacu creates 93% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.50

creates per match

0.86

1.33

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Foz Do Iguacu

2.50

AA Iguaçu

0.86

allows per match

Foz Do Iguacu

1.33

AA Iguaçu

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foz Do Iguacu ↓

AA Iguaçu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Foz Do Iguacu or draw

81%

Foz Do Iguacu or AA Iguaçu

79%

Draw or AA Iguaçu

40%

Winning margin

Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+

37%

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals

88%

Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals

62%

Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals

35%

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals

66%

AA Iguaçu 2+ goals

30%

AA Iguaçu 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)

76%

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foz Do Iguacu at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

AA Iguaçu away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foz Do Iguacu attack 2.50 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.10

AA Iguaçu attack 0.86 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Foz Do Iguacu scores more

60%

level

21%

AA Iguaçu scores more

19%

Foz Do Iguacu at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Foz Do Iguacu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff