AA Iguaçu 1–1 Foz Do Iguacu: Result & Stats

AA Iguaçu

FT

1 – 1

Foz Do Iguacu

5/11/2022

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

AA Iguaçu39%

×Draw29%

Foz Do Iguacu32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AA IguaçuExpected goals in this matchFoz Do Iguacu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.06

AA Iguaçu

1.19

Foz Do Iguacu

1.06

AA Iguaçu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 18 away

1.21

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

AA Iguaçu

1.21

Foz Do Iguacu

1.11

allows per match

AA Iguaçu

1.00

Foz Do Iguacu

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw

68%

AA Iguaçu or Foz Do Iguacu

71%

Draw or Foz Do Iguacu

61%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+

17%

Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals

70%

AA Iguaçu 2+ goals

33%

AA Iguaçu 3+ goals

12%

Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals

65%

Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals

29%

Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)

55%

Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.21 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Foz Do Iguacu attack 1.11 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more

39%

level

29%

Foz Do Iguacu scores more

32%

AA Iguaçu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff