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AA Iguaçu vs Foz Do Iguacu — Paranaense - 2 2025

AA Iguaçu
AA Iguaçu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacu
Tenorio 87'
6/30/2024Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AA Iguaçu41%
×Draw27%
Foz Do Iguacu32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AA Iguaçu
1.33
Foz Do Iguacu
1.15

AA Iguaçu creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

AA Iguaçu
1.38
Foz Do Iguacu
1.07

allows per match

AA Iguaçu
1.23
Foz Do Iguacu
1.29

finishing

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par
Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AA Iguaçu ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AA Iguaçu or draw
68%
AA Iguaçu or Foz Do Iguacu
73%
Draw or Foz Do Iguacu
59%

Winning margin

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+
19%
Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals
74%
AA Iguaçu 2+ goals
38%
AA Iguaçu 3+ goals
15%
Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
68%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
32%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)
56%
Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AA Iguaçu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AA Iguaçu attack 1.38 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Foz Do Iguacu attack 1.07 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AA Iguaçu scores more
41%
level
27%
Foz Do Iguacu scores more
32%

AA Iguaçu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AA Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'
Luigi
87'
Tenorio

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: AA Iguaçu 1–0 Foz Do Iguacu

AA Iguaçu beat Foz Do Iguacu 1-0 in Paranaense - 2 on June 30, 2024.

Goals: Tenorio (87').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Antiocho Pereira in União da Vitória, Paraná.