Fovu Club 1–1 Feutcheu: Result & Stats | Elite Two

Fovu Club

FT

1 – 1

Feutcheu

2/8/2025

Elite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fovu Club32%

×Draw31%

Feutcheu37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fovu ClubExpected goals in this matchFeutcheu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.04

Fovu Club

0.96

Feutcheu

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

0.91

creates per match

1.00

1.09

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fovu Club

0.91

Feutcheu

1.00

allows per match

Fovu Club

1.09

Feutcheu

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par

Feutcheu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Feutcheu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw

63%

Fovu Club or Feutcheu

69%

Draw or Feutcheu

68%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+

12%

Feutcheu wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals

62%

Fovu Club 2+ goals

25%

Fovu Club 3+ goals

7%

Feutcheu 1+ goals

65%

Feutcheu 2+ goals

28%

Feutcheu 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)

47%

Feutcheu (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Feutcheu away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 0.91 + Feutcheu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Feutcheu attack 1.00 + Fovu Club defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fovu Club scores more

32%

level

31%

Feutcheu scores more

37%

Feutcheu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Feutcheu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff