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Fovu Club vs Feutcheu — Elite One 2019

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
FT
3 – 2
Feutcheu
Feutcheu
5/9/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Fovu Club37%
×Draw30%
Feutcheu33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.08
Feutcheu
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 57 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
1.11
Feutcheu
1.04

allows per match

Fovu Club
0.94
Feutcheu
1.04

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
Feutcheu+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Feutcheu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
67%
Fovu Club or Feutcheu
70%
Draw or Feutcheu
63%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
15%
Feutcheu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
66%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
29%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
10%
Feutcheu 1+ goals
63%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
26%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
53%
Feutcheu (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

Feutcheu away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 1.11 + Feutcheu defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Feutcheu attack 1.04 + Fovu Club defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fovu Club scores more
37%
level
30%
Feutcheu scores more
33%

Fovu Club at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fovu Club 3–2 Feutcheu

Fovu Club beat Feutcheu 3-2 in Elite One on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.