Fovu Club 3–0 Aigle Royal: Result & Stats

Fovu Club

FT

3 – 0

Aigle Royal

6/10/2018

Elite One · Round 24Stade du CENAJES (Dschang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Fovu Club46%

×Draw28%

Aigle Royal26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fovu ClubExpected goals in this matchAigle Royal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.92

Fovu Club

1.33

Aigle Royal

0.92

Fovu Club creates 45% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 42 away

1.16

creates per match

0.90

0.94

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Fovu Club

1.16

Aigle Royal

0.90

allows per match

Fovu Club

0.94

Aigle Royal

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Aigle Royal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw

74%

Fovu Club or Aigle Royal

72%

Draw or Aigle Royal

54%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+

22%

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals

74%

Fovu Club 2+ goals

38%

Fovu Club 3+ goals

15%

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

60%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

23%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)

64%

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 1.16 + Aigle Royal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Aigle Royal attack 0.90 + Fovu Club defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fovu Club scores more

46%

level

28%

Aigle Royal scores more

26%

Fovu Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff