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Fovu Club vs Aigle Royal — Elite Two 2020

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
3/16/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fovu Club33%
×Draw29%
Aigle Royal39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.07
Aigle Royal
1.19

Aigle Royal creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
0.91
Aigle Royal
1.29

allows per match

Fovu Club
1.09
Aigle Royal
1.24

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Aigle Royal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
61%
Fovu Club or Aigle Royal
71%
Draw or Aigle Royal
67%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
13%
Aigle Royal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
66%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
29%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
9%
Aigle Royal 1+ goals
70%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
33%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
46%
Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 0.91 + Aigle Royal defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Aigle Royal attack 1.29 + Fovu Club defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fovu Club scores more
33%
level
29%
Aigle Royal scores more
39%

Aigle Royal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fovu Club vs Aigle Royal

Fovu Club beat Aigle Royal 1-0 in Elite Two on March 16, 2025.