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Aigle Royal vs Fovu Club — Elite Two 2020

Aigle Royal
Aigle Royal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
12/29/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aigle Royal58%
×Draw24%
Fovu Club18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aigle Royal
1.65
Fovu Club
0.79

Aigle Royal creates 109% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aigle Royal
1.50
Fovu Club
0.70

allows per match

Aigle Royal
0.89
Fovu Club
1.80

finishing

Aigle Royal+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aigle Royal ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aigle Royal or draw
82%
Aigle Royal or Fovu Club
76%
Draw or Fovu Club
42%

Winning margin

Aigle Royal wins by 2+
32%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Aigle Royal 1+ goals
81%
Aigle Royal 2+ goals
49%
Aigle Royal 3+ goals
23%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
55%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
19%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)
76%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aigle Royal at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aigle Royal attack 1.50 + Fovu Club defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fovu Club attack 0.70 + Aigle Royal defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Aigle Royal scores more
58%
level
24%
Fovu Club scores more
18%

Aigle Royal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aigle Royal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Aigle Royal 1–1 Fovu Club

Aigle Royal and Fovu Club drew 1-1 in Elite Two on December 29, 2024.