Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 12+ matches
Fortuna Düsseldorf41%
Eintracht Braunschweig31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 21% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 12 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches
Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28
Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.80 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Fortuna Düsseldorf substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
FC Schalke 04
SV Elversberg
SC Paderborn 07
Hannover 96
SV Darmstadt 98
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Hertha BSC
1. FC Nürnberg
VfL Bochum
Karlsruher SC
Dynamo Dresden
Holstein Kiel
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Arminia Bielefeld
1. FC MagdeburgEintracht BraunschweigFortuna Düsseldorf
Preußen Münster
Rot-Weiß EssenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Eintracht Braunschweig on Sunday, 8 December 2024 at 12:30. The match is part of the 2. Bundesliga 2018/2019 season.
2. Bundesliga: Fortuna Düsseldorf 5–0 Eintracht Braunschweig
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Eintracht Braunschweig 5-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 8, 2024.
Goals: D. Kownacki (4', 11'), Í. Jóhannesson (8', 70'), D. Pejčinović (87').
Fortuna Düsseldorf controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 14.
The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.