Eintracht Braunschweig 2–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf

Eintracht Braunschweig

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf

5/3/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 32Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig45%

×Draw24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht BraunschweigExpected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.30

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.64

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.30

Eintracht Braunschweig creates 26% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.56

creates per match

1.12

1.48

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.56

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.12

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.48

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.72

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.79scores less than expected

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig-0.31scores less

Fortuna Düsseldorf-0.79scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw

70%

Eintracht Braunschweig or Fortuna Düsseldorf

76%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf

55%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

81%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

49%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

73%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

37%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

60%

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 12 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.56 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.64

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.12 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

45%

level

24%

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

30%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff