Fortuna Dusseldorf 2–0 Eintracht Braunschweig

Fortuna Dusseldorf

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Eintracht Braunschweig

C. Tzolis 55' (pen)

F. Klaus 42'

4/7/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Düsseldorf Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf41%

×Draw28%

Eintracht Braunschweig31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DusseldorfExpected goals in this matchEintracht Braunschweig

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.06

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.28

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.06

Fortuna Dusseldorf creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.14

creates per match

0.80

1.31

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.14

Eintracht Braunschweig

0.80

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf

1.31

Eintracht Braunschweig

1.42

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.28scores more

Eintracht Braunschweig-0.05on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw

69%

Fortuna Dusseldorf or Eintracht Braunschweig

72%

Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig

59%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+

19%

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals

72%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals

37%

Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals

14%

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals

65%

Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals

29%

Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)

57%

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.14 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.80 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more

41%

level

28%

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more

31%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

F. Kastenmeier

Fortuna Dusseldorf · G

8.5

Match Events

26'

Felix Klaus

35'

Emmanuel Iyoha

42'

F. Klaus↳ S. Appelkamp

51'

Hassan Kurucay

54'

Tim Christopher OberdorfPenalty confirmed

55'

C. TzolisPenalty

62'

J. Gómez← Þ. Helgason

62'

N. Tauer← F. Krüger

62'

H. Finndell← F. Kaufmann

74'

Youssef Amyn← R. Krauße

74'

A. Ujah← H. Kuruçay

77'

C. Daferner← V. Vermeij

77'

J. Niemiec← F. Klaus

87'

M. Sobottka← C. Tzolis

87'

T. Uchino← E. Iyoha

90+2'

Takashi Uchino

90+1'

J. de Wijs← J. Siebert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaEintracht

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots14

3Corners6

10Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots14

3On Target5

7Off Target4

4Blocked5

7Inside Box12

7Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

616Total Passes400

526Accurate Passes314

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls7

3Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 7, 2024.

Goals: F. Klaus (42'), C. Tzolis (55' pen).

Fortuna Dusseldorf controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Düsseldorf Arena in Düsseldorf.

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig