Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Fortuna Düsseldorf

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

1. FC Kaiserslautern

S. Suso 84'

L. Sirch 55'

11/2/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 11Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf41%

×Draw26%

1. FC Kaiserslautern33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DüsseldorfExpected goals in this match1. FC Kaiserslautern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.21

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.38

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.21

Fortuna Düsseldorf creates 14% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.14

creates per match

1.10

1.31

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.14

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.10

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.31

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.61

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.28scores more

1. FC Kaiserslautern-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

1. FC Kaiserslautern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw

67%

Fortuna Düsseldorf or 1. FC Kaiserslautern

74%

Draw or 1. FC Kaiserslautern

59%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

19%

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

75%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

40%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

16%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

70%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

34%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

55%

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.10 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

41%

level

26%

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more

33%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

L. Sirch

1. FC Kaiserslautern · D

8.7

Match Events

18'

Tim Breithaupt

55'

L. Sirch

63'

Leon RobinsonGoal cancelled

63'

S. Suso← T. Breithaupt

64'

D. Schmidt← Z. Celar

73'

Paul Joly

78'

E. Egouli← S. Appelkamp

79'

Kim Ji-Soo← S. Sahin

79'

M. Ritter← N. Skytta

83'

A. Afeez← L. Robinson

84'

S. Suso

85'

Anouar El Azzouzi

85'

Luca Sirch

89'

E. Wekesser← D. Hanslik

89'

J. Elvedi← L. Sirch

90+7'

Jordy de Wijs

90+5'

Moritz Heyer

90+4'

J. de Wijs← F. Muslija

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Fortuna1.

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots16

1.11Expected Goals (xG)1.44

2Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots16

2On Target8

7Off Target5

2Blocked3

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box9

Passing

47%Possession53%

352Total Passes398

278Accurate Passes315

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2