1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–0 Fortuna Düsseldorf

1. FC Kaiserslautern

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf

D. Hanslik 90'

S. Sahin 76'

J. Rasmussen 62'

4/4/2026

2. Bundesliga · Round 28Fritz Walter Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern50%

×Draw23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. FC KaiserslauternExpected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.23

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.79

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.23

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

1.94

creates per match

1.13

1.34

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.94

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.13

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern

1.34

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.64

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

-0.88scores less than expected

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern-0.24scores less

Fortuna Düsseldorf-0.88scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw

74%

1. FC Kaiserslautern or Fortuna Düsseldorf

77%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf

50%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+

28%

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals

83%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals

53%

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals

26%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

71%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

35%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)

66%

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.34 · 10 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.64 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.94 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.13 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more

50%

level

23%

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

26%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Sahin

1. FC Kaiserslautern · M

8.9

Match Events

22'

Sima Suso

25'

J. Daland← C. Rasmussen

59'

N. Skytta← N. Bassette

59'

J. de Wijs← L. Raimund

59'

M. Ljubicic← C. Itten

60'

T. Breithaupt← S. Appelkamp

62'

J. Rasmussen↳ M. Ritter

75'

S. Asta← P. Joly

75'

D. Hanslik← M. Ritter

76'

S. Sahin↳ M. Berisha

83'

L. Robinson← L. Sirch

83'

M. Emreli← M. Berisha

83'

J. Paulina← S. Tanaka

90'

D. Hanslik↳ S. Sahin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

1.Fortuna

Overview

64%Possession36%

23Total Shots9

2.95Expected Goals (xG)0.54

9Corners6

10Fouls6

Shots

23Total Shots9

9On Target0

7Off Target4

7Blocked5

15Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

534Total Passes305

458Accurate Passes226

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

0.15Goals Prevented0.15

Discipline

10Fouls6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2