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1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Kaiserslautern
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
L. Sirch 90+3'
R. Ache 73'
M. Ritter 14'
T. Oberdorf 60'
3/29/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 27Fritz-Walter-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

1. FC Kaiserslautern50%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.79
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.23

1. FC Kaiserslautern creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.94
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.13

allows per match

1. FC Kaiserslautern
1.34
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.64

finishing

1. FC Kaiserslautern-0.24scores less
Fortuna Düsseldorf-0.88scores less

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Kaiserslautern ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

1. FC Kaiserslautern or draw
74%
1. FC Kaiserslautern or Fortuna Düsseldorf
77%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf
50%

Winning margin

1. FC Kaiserslautern wins by 2+
28%
Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

1. FC Kaiserslautern 1+ goals
83%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 2+ goals
53%
1. FC Kaiserslautern 3+ goals
26%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
71%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
35%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

1. FC Kaiserslautern (draw refunded)
66%
Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Kaiserslautern at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.34 · 10 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.64 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.94 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.79

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.13 + 1. FC Kaiserslautern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

1. FC Kaiserslautern scores more
50%
level
23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
26%

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "1. FC Kaiserslautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
L. Sirch1. FC Kaiserslautern1. FC Kaiserslautern · D
7.9

Match Events

14'
M. Ritter
16'
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson
19'
Matthias Zimmermann
34'
Maximilian BauerGoal cancelled
35'
Tim Christopher Oberdorf
38'
Marlon Ritter
60'
T. Oberdorf↳ J. Siebert
67'
Daniel Hanslik
73'
J. Niemiec← V. Lunddal Friðriksson
73'
R. Ache↳ F. Kleinhansl
75'
F. Kaloč← M. Ritter
78'
M. van Brederode← D. Schmidt
79'
J. Heuer← R. Ache
80'
J. Gyamerah← J. Zimmer
84'
Jona Niemiec
84'
D. Bindemann← A. Hoffmann
89'
Leon Robinson← D. Hanslik
90'
Jamil Siebert
90+3'
L. Sirch

Possession

45%1.

Shots

131.

Pass accuracy

48%1.

Statistics

1.Fortuna
Overview
45%Possession55%
13Total Shots8
5Corners5
13Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots8
7On Target4
2Off Target4
4Blocked0
6Inside Box8
7Outside Box0
Passing
45%Possession55%
376Total Passes460
294Accurate Passes391
78%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls13
2Yellow Cards5
1Offsides0

Match Recap: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Fortuna Düsseldorf

1. FC Kaiserslautern beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 29, 2025.

Goals: M. Ritter (14'), T. Oberdorf (60'), R. Ache (73'), L. Sirch (90+3').

Fortuna Düsseldorf controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 13.

The match was played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion in Kaiserslautern.