Forte Taganrog 1–0 Dinamo Makhachkala

Forte Taganrog

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Makhachkala

9/27/2023

Cup · Regions Path - 4th RoundForte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Forte Taganrog34%

×Draw29%

Dinamo Makhachkala37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forte TaganrogExpected goals in this matchDinamo Makhachkala

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.17

Forte Taganrog

1.10

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

0.88

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Forte Taganrog

0.88

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.33

allows per match

Forte Taganrog

1.00

Dinamo Makhachkala

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw

63%

Forte Taganrog or Dinamo Makhachkala

71%

Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala

66%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

14%

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

67%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

30%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

10%

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals

69%

Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals

33%

Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

48%

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 0.88 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.33 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more

34%

level

29%

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more

37%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff