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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Forte Taganrog — Second League - Group 1 2020

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
3/6/2022Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion imeni Eleny Isinbaevoy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala48%
×Draw24%
Forte Taganrog27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.65
Forte Taganrog
1.18

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 40% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
2.16
Forte Taganrog
1.61

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.75
Forte Taganrog
1.14

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
73%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Forte Taganrog
76%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
52%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
25%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
81%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
49%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
23%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
69%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
33%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
64%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 2.16, concedes 0.75 · 32 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 2.16 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
48%
level
24%
Forte Taganrog scores more
27%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Forte Taganrog

Dinamo Makhachkala and Forte Taganrog drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 1 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion imeni Eleny Isinbaevoy in Makhachkala.