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Forte Taganrog vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Second League - Group 1 2020

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
8/15/2021Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Forte Taganrog48%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Makhachkala26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.48
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00

Forte Taganrog creates 48% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 32 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
2.02
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.28

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
0.73
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.94

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
74%
Forte Taganrog or Dinamo Makhachkala
74%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
52%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
24%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
77%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
43%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
63%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
26%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
65%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.28, concedes 0.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.28 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
48%
level
26%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
26%

Forte Taganrog at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forte Taganrog vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Forte Taganrog and Dinamo Makhachkala drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.