Fortaleza EC 3–1 Atletico Goianiense

Fortaleza EC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atletico Goianiense

Renato Kayzer 74'

Alix 62' (OG)

T. Pochettino 23'

Roni 45'

7/21/2024

Serie A · Round 18Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fortaleza EC53%

×Draw25%

Atletico Goianiense21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.89

Fortaleza EC

1.57

Atletico Goianiense

0.89

Fortaleza EC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 6 away

1.48

creates per match

0.67

1.11

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

1.48

Atletico Goianiense

0.67

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

1.11

Atletico Goianiense

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

79%

Fortaleza EC or Atletico Goianiense

75%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

47%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

28%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

79%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

46%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

21%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

59%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

22%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

71%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.48 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Atletico Goianiense attack 0.67 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

53%

level

25%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

21%

Fortaleza EC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Moisés

Fortaleza EC · F

7.9

Match Events

23'

T. Pochettino↳ Hércules

28'

38'

45+6'

45+2'

45'

Roni↳ Guilherme Romão

47'

55'

55'

56'

57'

62'

AlixOwn goal

63'

Moisés← Breno Lopes

63'

Renato Kayzer← Matheus Rossetto

67'

Pedro Augusto← T. Pochettino

67'

Lucas Sasha← Yago Pikachu

67'

A. Cruz← Gabriel Baralhas

68'

Y. González← Janderson

74'

Renato Kayzer↳ Moisés

85'

I. Machuca← J. Lucero

85'

Lucas Kal← Roni

85'

Maguinho← Luiz Felipe

85'

Gustavo Campanharo← Rhaldney

90+5'

Bruno Pacheco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaAtletico

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots10

1.57Expected Goals (xG)0.67

5Corners6

12Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots10

3On Target2

5Off Target6

4Blocked2

5Inside Box6

7Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

463Total Passes298

395Accurate Passes242

85%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.73Goals Prevented-0.73

Discipline

12Fouls12

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Serie A: Fortaleza EC 3–1 Atletico Goianiense

Fortaleza EC beat Atletico Goianiense 3-1 in Serie A on July 21, 2024.

Goals: T. Pochettino (23'), Roni (45'), Alix (62' o.g.), Renato Kayzer (74').

Fortaleza EC controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.

Fortaleza EC vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Fortaleza EC 3–1 Atletico Goianiense