Fortaleza EC 1–1 Atletico Goianiense

Fortaleza EC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Goianiense

R. Otero 58'

Luiz Fernando 17'

11/6/2022

Serie A · Round 36Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fortaleza EC56%

×Draw25%

Atletico Goianiense19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.79

Fortaleza EC

1.59

Atletico Goianiense

0.79

Fortaleza EC creates 101% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 23 away

1.48

creates per match

0.70

0.88

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

1.48

Atletico Goianiense

0.70

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

0.88

Atletico Goianiense

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Atletico Goianiense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

81%

Fortaleza EC or Atletico Goianiense

75%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

44%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

30%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

80%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

47%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

21%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

55%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

19%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

75%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 42 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.48 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Atletico Goianiense attack 0.70 + Fortaleza EC defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

56%

level

25%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

19%

Fortaleza EC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Dudu

Atletico Goianiense · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

Luiz Fernando↳ Dudu

20'

Willian Maranhão

46'

Hércules← Lucas Sasha

53'

54'

56'

56'

57'

57'

58'

65'

67'

Marlon Freitas← Willian Maranhão

67'

Jorginho← Wellington Rato

75'

Luiz Fernando

75'

Luiz Fernando

75'

Luiz Fernando

76'

Kelvin← Shaylon

78'

Marcelo Benevenuto

85'

Pedro Rocha← Titi

89'

Léo Pereira

90+5'

Juninho Capixaba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaAtletico

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots13

11Corners3

9Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots13

6On Target6

7Off Target6

5Blocked1

10Inside Box7

8Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

415Total Passes333

343Accurate Passes250

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls12

2Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1