Atletico Goianiense 1–0 Fortaleza EC

Atletico Goianiense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fortaleza EC

Klebert 42'

7/12/2026

Serie B · Round 17Estádio Antônio Accioly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Atletico Goianiense46%

×Draw26%

Fortaleza EC28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.10

Atletico Goianiense

1.50

Fortaleza EC

1.10

Atletico Goianiense creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.58

creates per match

1.12

1.07

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.58

Fortaleza EC

1.12

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.07

Fortaleza EC

1.43

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.52scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.41scores less

Fortaleza EC-0.52scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

72%

Atletico Goianiense or Fortaleza EC

74%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

54%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

23%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

44%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

19%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

67%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

30%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

63%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.43 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.58 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fortaleza EC attack 1.12 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

46%

level

26%

Fortaleza EC scores more

28%

Atletico Goianiense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Klebert de Oliveira Pereira

Atletico Goianiense · M

7.9

Match Events

20'

Bruno Jose

33'

Gustavo Coutinho

36'

Tito← Bruno Jose

36'

Cristiano← Geovany Soares

41'

Mauricio Junior

42'

Klebert

46'

Mailton← Mauricio Junior

46'

Welliton← Pierre

46'

Pedro Henrique← Vitinho

49'

Lucas Gazal

62'

Rodriguinho

77'

Matheus Indio← Klebert

79'

Lucas Crispim← Rodriguinho

80'

Lucca Prior← Lucas Gazal

84'

G. Fuentes

87'

Leo Jaco← Marrony

90+1'

Mailton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoFortaleza

Overview

36%Possession64%

6Total Shots15

0.49Expected Goals (xG)1.49

1Corners11

9Fouls16

Shots

6Total Shots15

2On Target3

4Off Target6

1Blocked6

2Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

297Total Passes493

242Accurate Passes450

81%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.71Goals Prevented-0.71

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC

Atletico Goianiense beat Fortaleza EC 1-0 in Serie B on July 12, 2026.

Goals: Klebert (42').

Fortaleza EC controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Goiânia.

Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Atletico Goianiense vs Fortaleza EC