Forfar Athletic 1–1 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats

Forfar Athletic

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cove Rangers

7/20/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 4Alpha Projects Stadium @ Station Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Forfar Athletic44%

×Draw24%

Cove Rangers31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forfar AthleticExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.34

Forfar Athletic

1.64

Cove Rangers

1.34

Forfar Athletic creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.36

creates per match

1.25

1.43

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Forfar Athletic

1.36

Cove Rangers

1.25

allows per match

Forfar Athletic

1.43

Cove Rangers

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Cove Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw

69%

Forfar Athletic or Cove Rangers

76%

Draw or Cove Rangers

56%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

23%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

81%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

49%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

23%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

74%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

39%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

59%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 1.36 + Cove Rangers defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.64

Cove Rangers attack 1.25 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more

44%

level

24%

Cove Rangers scores more

31%

Forfar Athletic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Forfar Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff