Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cove Rangers vs Forfar Athletic — FA Cup 2019

Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Forfar Athletic
Forfar Athletic
1/18/2025FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundBalmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cove Rangers62%
×Draw20%
Forfar Athletic18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cove Rangers
2.17
Forfar Athletic
1.06

Cove Rangers creates 105% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Cove Rangers
2.60
Forfar Athletic
1.13

allows per match

Cove Rangers
1.00
Forfar Athletic
1.75

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par
Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Forfar Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw
82%
Cove Rangers or Forfar Athletic
80%
Draw or Forfar Athletic
38%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+
39%
Forfar Athletic wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals
89%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
64%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
36%
Forfar Athletic 1+ goals
65%
Forfar Athletic 2+ goals
29%
Forfar Athletic 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
78%
Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Forfar Athletic away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 2.60 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.17

Forfar Athletic attack 1.13 + Cove Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cove Rangers scores more
62%
level
20%
Forfar Athletic scores more
18%

Cove Rangers at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cove Rangers vs Forfar Athletic

Cove Rangers beat Forfar Athletic 2-0 in FA Cup on January 18, 2025.

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium in Aberdeen.