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Cove Rangers vs Forfar Athletic — League Cup 2018

Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Forfar Athletic
Forfar Athletic
11/14/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 7Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Cove Rangers51%
×Draw22%
Forfar Athletic27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cove Rangers
1.97
Forfar Athletic
1.40

Cove Rangers creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cove Rangers
1.67
Forfar Athletic
0.87

allows per match

Cove Rangers
1.93
Forfar Athletic
2.27

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par
Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Forfar Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw
73%
Cove Rangers or Forfar Athletic
78%
Draw or Forfar Athletic
49%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+
29%
Forfar Athletic wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals
86%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
58%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
31%
Forfar Athletic 1+ goals
75%
Forfar Athletic 2+ goals
41%
Forfar Athletic 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
65%
Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Forfar Athletic away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.67 + Forfar Athletic defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.97

Forfar Athletic attack 0.87 + Cove Rangers defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cove Rangers scores more
51%
level
22%
Forfar Athletic scores more
27%

Cove Rangers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cove Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cove Rangers vs Forfar Athletic

Cove Rangers beat Forfar Athletic 1-0 in League Cup on November 14, 2020.

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium in Aberdeen.