Follo 2–1 Asker: Result & Stats

Follo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Asker

M. Ottesen 38'

E. Togersen 11'

M. Jatta 14'

8/9/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Langhus kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Follo43%

×Draw23%

Asker34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FolloExpected goals in this matchAsker

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.51

Follo

1.72

Asker

1.51

Follo creates 14% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 45 away

1.61

creates per match

1.29

1.73

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Follo

1.61

Asker

1.29

allows per match

Follo

1.73

Asker

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Follo+0.00on par

Asker+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Follo ↓

Asker →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Follo or draw

66%

Follo or Asker

77%

Draw or Asker

57%

Winning margin

Follo wins by 2+

22%

Asker wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Follo 1+ goals

82%

Follo 2+ goals

51%

Follo 3+ goals

25%

Asker 1+ goals

78%

Asker 2+ goals

44%

Asker 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Follo (draw refunded)

56%

Asker (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Follo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

Asker away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Follo attack 1.61 + Asker defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Asker attack 1.29 + Follo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Follo scores more

43%

level

23%

Asker scores more

34%

Follo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Follo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

14'

38'

59'

61'

64'

E. Kristiansen← E. Fredriksen

64'

J. Kenyi← S. Emanuelsen

69'

E. Kristiansen

75'

E. Adukonis← K. Getz

77'

E. Hennig← R. Gonella

77'

D. Ghebar← N. Skoglund

82'

V. Joves← E. Togersen

88'

L. Sesay← M. Jatta

89'

E. Hennig

90+2'

J. Johansen

90+1'

N. F. Ozyilmaz← M. Ottesen

Follo

Asker

30

Hejer

42

⚽

▼

Jatta

22

▼

Emanuelse

3

Larsen

29

Brennhaug

8

▼

Getz

7

▼

18

14

77

9

1

23

18

▼

6

2

21

4

8

10

⚽

▼

Ottesen

90

⚽

▼

Togersen

11

▼

Skoglund

Manager: C. Jacobsen

77'▲E. Hennig←▼R. Gonella

77'▲D. Ghebar←▼N. Skoglund

82'▲V. Joves←▼E. Togersen

90+1'▲N. F. Ozyilmaz←▼M. Ottesen

Follo substitutes

13Ostbye7Hennig14Ruud16Ozyilmaz22Gavey24Joves27Jorde28Schmidt-Lovlund30Ghebar

Manager: R. Bredal

64'▲E. Kristiansen←▼E. Fredriksen

64'▲J. Kenyi←▼S. Emanuelsen

75'▲E. Adukonis←▼K. Getz

88'▲L. Sesay←▼M. Jatta

Asker substitutes

1Normann10Adukonis11Baekken12Heggset15Kristiansen17Arnesen20Sesay27Kenyi28Stokke

Follo 2 – 1 Asker

Follo beat Asker 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on August 9, 2025.

Goals: E. Togersen (11'), M. Jatta (14'), M. Ottesen (38').

The match was played at Langhus kunstgress in Ski.

Follo vs Asker — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Follo 2 – 1 Asker