Asker 2–2 Follo: Result & Stats

Asker

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Follo

R. Sorter 19'

R. Fazi 15' (pen)

G. Helling 90'

D. Ghebar 1'

3/29/2025

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Foyka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Asker50%

×Draw21%

Follo29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AskerExpected goals in this matchFollo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.54

Asker

2.07

Follo

1.54

Asker creates 34% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 30 away

1.71

creates per match

1.30

1.79

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Asker

1.71

Follo

1.30

allows per match

Asker

1.79

Follo

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asker+0.00on par

Follo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

Follo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Asker or draw

71%

Asker or Follo

79%

Draw or Follo

50%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+

29%

Follo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals

87%

Asker 2+ goals

61%

Asker 3+ goals

34%

Follo 1+ goals

79%

Follo 2+ goals

45%

Follo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)

63%

Follo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 42 matches

Follo away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 1.71 + Follo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.07

Follo attack 1.30 + Asker defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Asker scores more

50%

level

21%

Follo scores more

29%

Asker at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

D. Ghebar

15'

R. FaziPenalty

19'

R. Sorter

41'

H. Hagen

46'

J. Kenyi← K. Getz

62'

L. Sesay← R. Sorter

67'

M. Baekken← K. Syvertsen

67'

M. Jatta← E. Adukonis

77'

V. Joves← I. Eftedal

77'

G. Helling← E. Togersen

77'

J. Jorde← R. Gonella

80'

E. Hennig← D. Ghebar

87'

D. Pettersen← R. Fazi

90'

J. Kenyi

90+3'

M. Spiten-Nysaeter

90'

G. Helling

Asker

Follo

1

4

5

3

21

6

18

▼

Gonella

25

▼

Eftedal

10

Ottesen

30

⚽

▼

Ghebar

90

▼

30

5

3

19

22

8

▼

Getz

10

▼

Adukonis

18

Spiten-Ny

14

⚽

▼

Sorter

16

⚽

▼

Fazi

77

▼

Syvertsen

Manager: R. Bredal

46'▲J. Kenyi←▼K. Getz

62'▲L. Sesay←▼R. Sorter

67'▲M. Baekken←▼K. Syvertsen

67'▲M. Jatta←▼E. Adukonis

87'▲D. Pettersen←▼R. Fazi

Asker substitutes

1Normann6Pettersen9Stofring11Baekken17Arnesen20Sesay21S.27Kenyi42Jatta

Manager: C. Jacobsen

77'▲V. Joves←▼I. Eftedal

77'▲G. Helling←▼E. Togersen

77'▲J. Jorde←▼R. Gonella

80'▲E. Hennig←▼D. Ghebar

Follo substitutes

13Ostbye7Hennig16Ozyilmaz20Larsen24Joves26Helling27Jorde28Schmidt-Lovlund23Elshaug

Asker 2 – 2 Follo

Asker and Follo drew 2-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on March 29, 2025.

Goals: D. Ghebar (1'), R. Fazi (15' pen), R. Sorter (19'), G. Helling (90').

The match was played at Foyka Stadium in Asker.

Asker vs Follo — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Asker 2 – 2 Follo