Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Asker vs Follo — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Asker
Asker
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Follo
Follo
M. Nyhus 87'
C. Wielens 89'
D. Ghebar 85'
R. Gonella 52'
10/22/20233. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 25Føyka Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Asker42%
×Draw21%
Follo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asker
1.96
Follo
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Asker
3.00
Follo
2.54

allows per match

Asker
1.15
Follo
0.92

finishing

Asker+0.00on par
Follo+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asker ↓

Follo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Asker or draw
63%
Asker or Follo
79%
Draw or Follo
58%

Winning margin

Asker wins by 2+
23%
Follo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Asker 1+ goals
86%
Asker 2+ goals
58%
Asker 3+ goals
31%
Follo 1+ goals
84%
Follo 2+ goals
55%
Follo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Asker (draw refunded)
53%
Follo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asker at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Follo away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asker attack 3.00 + Follo defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.96

Follo attack 2.54 + Asker defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Asker scores more
42%
level
21%
Follo scores more
37%

Asker at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Asker will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
R. Gonella
85'
D. Ghebar
87'
M. Nyhus
89'
C. Wielens

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Asker vs Follo

Follo beat Asker 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on October 22, 2023.

Goals: R. Gonella (52'), D. Ghebar (85'), M. Nyhus (87'), C. Wielens (89').

The match was played at Føyka Kunstgress in Asker.