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Fleetwood Town vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
15:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
12/12/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 19Highbury Stadium
Big match
47%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
47%26%27%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Fleetwood Town47%
×Draw26%
Swindon Town27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.52
Swindon Town
1.10

Fleetwood Town creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.52
Swindon Town
1.24

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
0.96
Swindon Town
1.51

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.35scores less
Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
73%
Fleetwood Town or Swindon Town
74%
Draw or Swindon Town
53%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
24%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
78%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
45%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
20%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
67%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
30%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
63%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.52 + Swindon Town defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swindon Town attack 1.24 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
47%
level
26%
Swindon Town scores more
27%

Fleetwood Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Fleetwood Town
Balanced
Swindon Town
Balanced
48%PossessionBiggest gap53%
68%Pass accuracy71%
12.1Shots12.4
1.32xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownSwindon Town

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Fleetwood Town
2
Draws
3
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
1–11–10–41–30–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Swindon Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Swindon Town. Match starts December 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Swindon Town at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.