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Fleetwood Town vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
15:00
Exeter City
Exeter City
1/23/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 27Highbury Stadium
Big match
39%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
39%27%35%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Fleetwood Town39%
×Draw27%
Exeter City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.31
Exeter City
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 97 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.31
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.11
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
65%
Fleetwood Town or Exeter City
73%
Draw or Exeter City
61%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
17%
Exeter City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
73%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
38%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%
Exeter City 1+ goals
71%
Exeter City 2+ goals
35%
Exeter City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
53%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.31 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
39%
level
27%
Exeter City scores more
35%

Fleetwood Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
Exeter City
Balanced
49%Possession51%
68%Pass accuracyBiggest gap63%
12.2Shots12.1
1.39xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownExeter City

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

1
Fleetwood Town
4
Draws
3
Exeter City
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 63%
1–13–02–21–20–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
City
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Exeter City (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Exeter City. Match starts January 23, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Exeter City at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.