Fleetwood Town 2–2 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Exeter City

J. Marriott 35', 18'

P. Sweeney 90+1'

K. McDonald 28'

4/1/2023

League One · Round 39Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Fleetwood Town44%

×Draw26%

Exeter City29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.11

Fleetwood Town

1.43

Exeter City

1.11

Fleetwood Town creates 29% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 93 away

1.27

creates per match

1.05

1.17

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.27

Exeter City

1.05

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Exeter City

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

71%

Fleetwood Town or Exeter City

74%

Draw or Exeter City

56%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

21%

Exeter City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

76%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

42%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

17%

Exeter City 1+ goals

67%

Exeter City 2+ goals

30%

Exeter City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

60%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Exeter City attack 1.05 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

44%

level

26%

Exeter City scores more

29%

Fleetwood Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Marriott

Fleetwood Town · F

8.2

Match Events

18'

J. Marriott

28'

K. McDonald↳ W. Aimson

35'

J. Marriott↳ H. Macadam

46'

J. White← H. Kite

54'

C. Johnston← B. Sarpong-Wiredu

61'

C. Ndaba← S. Rooney

66'

J. Scott← K. McDonald

72'

J. Sparkes← J. Stansfield

73'

Harrison Holgate

84'

D. Batty← P. Patterson

84'

C. Hayes← H. Macadam

90+2'

K. Chauke← D. Mitchell

90+1'

P. Sweeney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodExeter

Overview

39%Possession61%

14Total Shots11

5Corners5

12Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots11

3On Target4

6Off Target4

5Blocked3

12Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

334Total Passes542

223Accurate Passes436

67%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2