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Fleetwood Town vs Exeter City — League One 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Exeter City
Exeter City
11/11/2023League OneLeague One · Round 17Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Fleetwood Town44%
×Draw26%
Exeter City29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.43
Exeter City
1.11

Fleetwood Town creates 29% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 93 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.27
Exeter City
1.05

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.17
Exeter City
1.58

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
71%
Fleetwood Town or Exeter City
74%
Draw or Exeter City
56%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
21%
Exeter City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
76%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
42%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
17%
Exeter City 1+ goals
67%
Exeter City 2+ goals
30%
Exeter City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
60%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.58 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.43

Exeter City attack 1.05 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
44%
level
26%
Exeter City scores more
29%

Fleetwood Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Fleetwood Town 3–0 Exeter City

Fleetwood Town beat Exeter City 3-0 in League One on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.