Exeter City 1–1 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Exeter City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fleetwood Town

2/24/2024

League One · Round 35St James Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Exeter City40%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Exeter CityExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.19

Exeter City

1.33

Fleetwood Town

1.19

Exeter City creates 12% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 134 away

1.23

creates per match

1.18

1.21

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Exeter City

1.23

Fleetwood Town

1.18

allows per match

Exeter City

1.21

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Exeter City+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Exeter City ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Exeter City or draw

67%

Exeter City or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

60%

Winning margin

Exeter City wins by 2+

18%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Exeter City 1+ goals

74%

Exeter City 2+ goals

38%

Exeter City 3+ goals

15%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

70%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

33%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Exeter City (draw refunded)

55%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Exeter City at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 92 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Exeter City attack 1.23 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Exeter City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Exeter City scores more

40%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

33%

Exeter City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Exeter City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff