Fleetwood Town 2–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cheltenham

M. Helm 90+2'

M. Virtue-Thick 44'

2/8/2025

League Two · Round 31Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fleetwood Town50%

×Draw26%

Cheltenham24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.96

Fleetwood Town

1.51

Cheltenham

0.96

Fleetwood Town creates 57% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.61

creates per match

1.01

0.91

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.61

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.91

Cheltenham

1.41

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less

Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

76%

Fleetwood Town or Cheltenham

74%

Draw or Cheltenham

50%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

25%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

78%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

44%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

19%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

62%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

25%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

68%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.51

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

50%

level

26%

Cheltenham scores more

24%

Fleetwood Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Virtue-Thick

Fleetwood Town · M

7.7

Match Events

44'

M. Virtue-Thick

58'

T. Dieng← L. Kinsella

58'

E. Williams← L. Dulson

59'

M. Taylor← G. Miller

62'

Sam Stubbs

66'

O. Devonport← L. Marsh

74'

Brandon Cover

75'

R. Bennett← B. Cover

75'

M. Helm← M. Virtue-Thick

84'

D. Power← A. Jude-Boyd

85'

P. Patterson← R. Graydon

85'

A. Hay← L. Young

89'

Shaun Rooney

90+4'

Rhys Bennett

90+2'

M. Helm↳ E. Bonds

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodCheltenham

Overview

40%Possession60%

15Total Shots8

5Corners4

15Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots8

6On Target0

5Off Target4

4Blocked4

9Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

265Total Passes383

147Accurate Passes255

55%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2